Every World Cup, the host broadcaster does the same thing: they show the group, they smile, and they tell you “anything can happen”. I am not a broadcaster, I do not have to smile, and I am going to tell you exactly what Group G looks like from where I sit.

The fixtures (all times NZT)

NZ vs Iran: Tuesday June 16, 1pm, Los Angeles.
NZ vs Egypt: Monday June 22, 1pm, Vancouver.
NZ vs Belgium: Saturday June 27, 3pm, Vancouver.
All three live and free on TVNZ 1 and TVNZ+. Belgium, Egypt and Iran also play each other in between, and those results will matter to us more than we would like.

Belgium: the aristocrat with grey hair

The golden generation is gone, but do not let anyone tell you Belgium are weak. De Bruyne’s heirs still play in the biggest clubs in Europe, and their floor is higher than our ceiling. Anything against Belgium is a bonus. I have watched too much football to pretend otherwise. What I will say: aging European squads at summer tournaments in American heat have a long history of being more mortal than their ranking suggests. If they arrive at match three already qualified, things could get interesting in Vancouver.

Egypt: Salah and ten honest workers

Mohamed Salah is the best player in this group by a distance, and Egypt’s entire tournament runs through him. But here is the thing about teams built around one genius, and we in South America know this story by heart: cut the supply line and you cut the team. Egypt can be frustrated. They can be slowed down. The June 22 match in Vancouver is, for me, the most important game New Zealand will play this decade. It is winnable. It has to be won.

Iran: the trap everyone underrates

I already wrote a full preview of the opener, but the summary: Iran are experienced, organised, physical, and they have been at every recent World Cup while we were watching from the couch. They are the kind of team that wins 1-0 and apologises to nobody. Respect them or suffer.

The maths of hope

Now the good news, and it is real news, not broadcaster smiling: this 48-team World Cup sends the top two from each group through, plus eight of the twelve third-placed teams. Four points almost certainly gets you out. Three points and a decent goal difference might.

So here is the honest route: beat Iran or Egypt, draw the other, survive Belgium with dignity. Four points. Knockout football. It is not fantasy. It requires the All Whites to play the two best weeks of their collective lives, but World Cups exist precisely because sometimes teams do.

And if it goes wrong? Then it goes wrong with the whole country watching at lunchtime, free, on TVNZ 1, and a new generation falls in love with this stupid beautiful game anyway. That is also how football grows. I have seen it happen on the other side of the Pacific. It is happening here next.