I have watched a lot of football from the wrong side of the planet, and I know the difference between a draw that disappoints and a draw that feels like a victory. The All Whites’ 2-2 against Iran was the second kind. I sat here in New Zealand at an hour no sensible person should be awake, and by the final whistle I was up off the couch like Chile had qualified. We did not win. It did not matter. Something shifted.

And now comes the part nobody wants to say out loud, so I will: Monday against Egypt is the one we actually have to win. Kick-off is 1pm NZT, Monday June 22, free to air on TVNZ 1 and TVNZ+, from BC Place in Vancouver. Block out your lunch break, call in sick, do whatever you have to do.

How Group G actually looks

Here is the beautiful, terrifying truth: after one round, every team in Group G has exactly one point. Belgium and Egypt cancelled each other out 1-1 in Seattle. We drew with Iran 2-2 in Los Angeles. Four teams, four points shared, nobody has shown they are too good for the rest. That is not the script we were handed when this draw came out. We were meant to be the whipping boys. Instead the group is wide open, and second place (the spot that puts you into the knockout rounds for the first time in All Whites history) is right there.

Belgium are still Belgium, and they play Iran on June 21. If the Belgians do what their talent says they should, then Egypt becomes our direct rival for that second spot. Beat them and we are in command of our own fate. Lose, and we are doing maths and praying. I have done enough praying watching Chile miss three World Cups in a row. I would rather we just win the game.

The Wood and Just show, please run it back

Elijah Just became the first All White to ever score twice in a World Cup match, and he did it on the biggest stage there is. Seventh minute and 54th minute, both set up by Chris Wood, who turned in the kind of performance that had the New Zealand press handing out nine out of ten. Wood is 34 and playing like a man who knows this is his last dance, holding the ball up, dragging defenders around, and then producing the footwork to tee up Just’s opener. If you grew up on South American number nines, you recognise that type: the striker who scores and also makes everyone around him better.

The worry, of course, is that we conceded twice. Ramin Rezaeian and Mohammad Mohebbi pulled Iran level both times, and the second one stung because we had the lead and let it slip. Egypt will have watched that tape. They will fancy their chances of getting at us.

What Egypt brings (and yes, it is mostly one man)

Egypt are not scary on paper the way a European giant is, but they have Mohamed Salah, and one moment of Salah is enough to ruin an afternoon. Their form coming in was patchy, two wins, a draw and two losses in their last five, and that 1-1 with Belgium was a grind rather than a statement. The one time these sides met, a friendly in March 2024, Egypt won 1-0. So nobody here should be strutting. But there is a version of this game where our physicality and our willingness to run at people for ninety minutes pulls Egypt out of shape. That is the version I am betting on.

Why I refuse to call us underdogs anymore

Back in 2010 the All Whites went to South Africa and came home unbeaten, three draws against Slovakia, Italy and Paraguay, and the whole country decided that was the ceiling. Honourable draws. Plucky little New Zealand. I have always hated that framing, because I come from a football culture where you are supposed to want to win, not merely survive. The Iran result proved this group can do more than survive. Just scored twice. Wood bossed it. We were the better team for long stretches.

So here is my call: New Zealand 2, Egypt 1, and we walk into the Belgium match on June 27 with our destiny in our own hands. I have spent years watching this World Cup as an outsider with no team of my own in it. For once I have adopted a side that is genuinely mine, that plays where I live, and that just might do something nobody expected. Monday, 1pm, TVNZ. I will be the one yelling at the screen. Vamos los All Whites.